28 January, 2008 - Bhutan’s population will grow to around 887,000 by 2030, according to a report released by the National Statistics Bureau, “Population Projections: Bhutan 2005-2030.
This is a 40 percent growth from the 2005 resident population of 634,982. The bureau estimates the country’s population to grow 1.4 percent for the next 25 years, which is termed as a medium growth.
According to the United Nations World Population Prospects report, 2006, Cook Islands at -2.23 percent had the lowest population growth rate and Liberia has the highest growth rate at 4.50 percent.
The projections were made by measuring the fertility rate of women and life expectancy at birth, which are the main components of population projections. The total fertility rate or the number of live births a woman would bear in her reproductive life span was estimated at 3.59, based on the population and housing census of Bhutan conducted in 2005. NSB estimates the fertility rate to decline during the projection period 2005-2030 and reach 1.87 in 2030.
According to the report, the life expectancy is estimated at 74.71 years for females and 73.64 years for males in 2030. In the absence of reliable data to establish the mortality rate, the report took mortality data from the population and housing census of 2005.
It estimates that the life expectancy at birth to increase at a gradual rate of 0.5 percent between 2005-2010, with an annual gain of 0.3 between 2010-2020. The gains in life expectancy will be relatively slower, with an average gain of 0.2 until 2030.
According to the report, population density will steadily increase from 16 persons per square kilometre to an estimated 23 persons by 2030. The report also estimates the birth rate to decline from 26.1 percent in 2005 to 14.5 in 2030 because of the declining level of total fertility. Death rate is expected to fall from 7.7 percent in 2005 to 6.8 by 2030.
The population structure is expected to undergo a major change because of the fertility and mortality factors. It is estimated that the proportion of population aged less than 15 years to decline from 33.1 percent to 22.8 percent. The population of people between 15-64 years is projected to increase from 62.3 percent to 70.6 percent.
In 2007, the largest population was in the age group, 15-19 years with 76,381 persons.
With the declining fertility along with consistent increase in life expectancy, the number of older persons in the population is expected to double from 29,745 persons in 2005 to 58,110 persons by 2030. The population of the school going age, 5-14 years is expected to decline from 147,406 persons in 2005 to 140,037 persons in 2030.
By Ugyen Penjore
ugyenpen@kuensel.com.bt
